Queensland Labor escaped a political execution in the inner northern Brisbane seat of Stafford, but nobody should be popping champagne at party headquarters. While the final preference counts show Labor candidate Luke Richmond hanging on with roughly 51.2% of the two-candidate preferred vote, the underlying numbers are a massive warning shot. You don't lose 8% of your primary vote in a traditional stronghold and call it a win.
This weekend's Stafford byelection was triggered by the tragic death of former independent MP Jimmy Sullivan, who had held the seat before his expulsion from Labor last year. The outcome leaves the sitting Liberal National Party (LNP) government under Premier David Crisafulli falling just short of a historic capture, but the shift in voter sentiment is impossible to ignore. Recently making headlines in this space: The Photo-Op Trade Illusion Why the India Netherlands Bilateral Talks are Geopolitical Theater.
The Numbers Left Labor Bleeding on the Floor
If you look solely at the headline that Labor retained Stafford, you're missing the real story. Take a glance at the brutal destruction of the Labor primary vote. Richmond dragged in a dismal 30.7% of first preferences.
Compare that to the LNP’s Fiona Hammond, who walked away with 40.4% of the primary vote. Additional insights on this are explored by USA Today.
Labor survived this near-death experience because of a massive lifeline thrown by the minor parties. Queensland utilizes a compulsory preferential voting system, which means every preference box on the ballot must be filled. When Jess Lane of the Greens was excluded with her 14.7% of the vote, those minor party preferences flowed aggressively back to Labor. Antony Green's election data shows that a whopping 86.4% of Greens preferences flowed directly to Richmond, alongside 81.6% from socialist independent Liam Parry.
The LNP didn't lose this race because their message failed; they lost because they ran out of friends on the ballot paper.
Why One Nation’s Absence Saved the Day
A massive variable in this race was Pauline Hanson's One Nation choosing to sit out the contest entirely. Pauline Hanson's chief of staff, James Ashby, publicly defended the choice by stating that a four-week campaign was too short and a waste of party resources. He insisted that One Nation had no interest in propping up the LNP in urban Brisbane.
That single strategic decision likely kept Stafford in Labor hands. Political scientists like Griffith University’s Paul Williams noted that even a modest One Nation showing of 12% to 20% in Stafford would have heavily favored the LNP via preference flows. Instead, right-wing preferences were scattered across minor entities like Family First, whose candidate Alan Denaro saw 75.6% of his preferences flow to the LNP, but it wasn't enough to bridge the gap.
A Permanent Headache for Steven Miles
Former Premier Steven Miles needed a clean, convincing victory here to solidify his position as Opposition Leader. He didn't get it.
While a total loss would have been instantly terminal for his leadership, a 4.1% two-party swing against Labor in an urban seat they traditionally control is a terrible look. Byelections are notoriously tough on sitting governments, yet the Crisafulli LNP government managed to gain ground.
Voters are frustrated with cost-of-living pressures, healthcare bottlenecks, and a general sense that the state's economic engine is sputtering. The inner-north suburbs of Wilston, Kedron, and Chermside are filled with mortgage-belt families who are feeling the pinch. Richmond's narrow victory proves that while these voters aren't completely sold on the LNP's vision yet, their patience with Labor has entirely run out.
What Happens on the Counting Floor Next
Don't expect an official declaration from Electoral Commissioner Pat Vidgen immediately. More than 40% of the electorate chose to vote early, with 13,530 people voting in person and another 3,860 utilizing postal ballots.
ABC Chief Elections and Data Analyst Casey Briggs pointed out that while the remaining postal votes are highly unlikely to break strongly enough for Hammond to pull off an upset, the margins are still tight enough to require multiple verification counts.
If you want to track where Queensland politics is heading as we move further into 2026, keep your eyes on how Labor responds to this scare. They can't rely on the Greens to save them in every urban contest. If the LNP can refine its urban appeal and solve its preference deficit, the next general election will be a bloodbath for the opposition. Labor has been given a second chance in Stafford, but the clock is ticking loudly.
