The upcoming BRICS summit in New Delhi on September 12 and 13 is being framed by official channels as a triumph of multipolar diplomacy, with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping signaling their attendance. This official narrative conceals a far more volatile reality. Beneath the surface of planned bilateral meetings and photo opportunities lies a fractured, hyper-expanded eleven-nation bloc pushing India to its absolute diplomatic limits. New Delhi is not just hosting a meeting. It is attempting to prevent an anti-Western alignment from swallowing its own foreign policy.
The confirmation of Putin’s attendance by Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov and the highly anticipated arrival of Xi Jinping—his first trip to India since the 2019 Mamallapuram summit—appear to show a group consolidating its power. Yet the expanded BRICS, which now includes Middle Eastern heavyweights and African economies, is buckling under the weight of its own internal contradictions. Driven by an escalation in global conflict and a direct challenge to the US dollar from Washington, the New Delhi summit has transformed from a routine economic forum into a geopolitical trap for its host. Meanwhile, you can explore similar developments here: Why Trump is Seizing Shadow Fleet Oil Tankers Instead of Launching Air Strikes.
The Illusion of Unity and the Iran War Fracture
Publicly, BRICS represents roughly 40 percent of global GDP and nearly half of the world's population. Privately, it is a house divided by actual warfare. The cracks became unmistakable during the April conclave of deputy foreign ministers in New Delhi, where discussions derailed over the ongoing war involving Iran, a new BRICS member.
While Moscow and Beijing view Iran as a critical node in their axis to counter American influence, other members see Tehran’s active conflicts as a direct threat to regional stability and economic survival. India finds itself caught in the middle. New Delhi has spent years cultivating strategic ties with Iran, particularly through the Chabahar port project, to secure trade routes into Central Asia. Simultaneously, India maintains deep defense, intelligence, and economic partnerships with Israel and Gulf monarchies like the UAE. By expanding the bloc to include ideological adversaries, BRICS has imported regional conflicts directly into its decision-making core, making a unified consensus on global security nearly impossible. To explore the complete picture, check out the excellent analysis by The New York Times.
The Weaponization of the Bloc
The strategic calculations of Moscow and Beijing no longer align with the founding economic principles of the group. For Vladimir Putin, making his second trip to India within a year following his December 2025 bilateral visit, New Delhi offers a rare, high-visibility stage to demonstrate that Western isolation strategies have failed. For Xi Jinping, the summit is an opportunity to solidify a Beijing-centric global framework that positions the global South against Washington.
This aggressive anti-Western shift presents an acute dilemma for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. India's foreign policy is anchored in strategic autonomy, a doctrine that requires maintaining deep ties with Russia for defense supplies and energy security while simultaneously participating in the Quad alliance with the United States, Japan, and Australia to counter Chinese expansion in the Indo-Pacific.
[Western Alliances: Quad / G7] <--- (India's Balance) ---> [Eastern/Global South: BRICS / SCO]
│
(Pushed toward Anti-US Axis
by Russia & China)
As Russia and China push to turn BRICS into an explicit weapon against Western institutions, India's balancing act is becoming unsustainable. US President Donald Trump has already labeled the expanded bloc "anti-American" and warned of severe economic retaliation against countries attempting to undermine the US dollar. India has no interest in destroying the dollar-based financial system; its primary economic goal is to safeguard its own trade and capital flows.
The Border Detente Gamble
Xi Jinping’s expected arrival in New Delhi cannot be decoupled from the military realities along the Line of Actual Control. The freeze in Sino-Indian relations that followed the deadly June 2020 Galwan Valley clashes and the 2022 Tawang standoff only began to thaw after the Modi-Xi meeting on the margins of the Kazan summit, which led to a fragile disengagement agreement in eastern Ladakh.
Yet, experienced defense analysts view Beijing’s sudden diplomatic warmth with skepticism. China’s willingness to de-escalate on the border and send Xi to New Delhi is a tactical move, not a permanent shift in strategy. By temporarily lowering border tensions, Beijing aims to buy India's cooperation—or at least its silence—at the BRICS table. China requires a successful, unified summit to legitimize its alternative financial systems and expansion plans. Once the cameras leave New Delhi, the structural core of the Sino-Indian rivalry, from the Indian Ocean to the Himalayan heights, will remain completely unchanged.
The Currency Deception
The most significant battleground in New Delhi will be hidden behind technical debates over alternative payment mechanisms and trade settlement platforms. Russia, largely cut off from the SWIFT network, needs an immediate, functional alternative to trade its oil and commodities. Beijing sees this as the perfect mechanism to internationalize the yuan.
This creates an economic trap for India. Settling billions of dollars in trade using the Chinese currency is politically unpalatable and economically hazardous for New Delhi. Attempts to settle oil purchases with Russia in Indian rupees have left Moscow holding billions in currency it cannot easily spend, forcing transactions back toward alternative currencies or complex gold-linked mechanisms. The push for a unified BRICS currency is a pipe dream. The real objective for China is the expansion of yuan-denominated transactional infrastructure, a move that would inadvertently increase India’s economic dependence on its primary strategic rival.
A Legacy of Managed Friction
The upcoming summit will not produce a unified global front, nor will it result in the collapse of the Western financial order. Instead, it will reveal a grouping that has grown too large to speak with a single voice and too conflicted to act as a cohesive alliance.
India’s success in September will not be measured by the grand declarations signed at the end of the summit. It will be measured by its ability to manage friction, resist Chinese attempts to dominate the agenda, and prevent the bloc from hardening into an anti-Western alliance that would trigger economic confrontation with Washington. New Delhi's diplomatic core faces the grueling task of keeping the summit focused on economic resilience and innovation, while keeping the structural rivalries outside the conference room door.
The strategic reality of the 2026 BRICS summit is that the real work will occur during the tense, unscripted moments on the sidelines, where long-standing rivals will attempt to outmaneuver one another under the guise of cooperation.
Analyzing Putin's Upcoming Diplomatic Track This broadcast details the Kremlin's confirmation of Putin's travel plans to New Delhi and outlines the high-level meetings framing the run-up to the September summit.
